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The World In 2050

Akhyari Hananto
Akhyari Hananto
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The World In 2050
A report by PriceWaterhouse Coopers predicts that by 2050 the Indonesian economy will have grown to almost 20% the size of the US economy. Well, GNFI is sure, Indonesia economy can grow as much as 25-27% of US economy sometimes in 2035. That is gonna be a quantum leap for this country. Currently Indonesian GDP is 7% the size of the world giant America in purchasing power parity terms and 2% in current exchange rate terms. Indonesia is included in a group called E7 which also is comprised of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey, the big guns of the developing world. By 2050,the report says, the E7 economies will have outstripped the current G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) “by between 25% when comparing GDP using market exchange rates to around 75% when using purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates”. Indonesia, along with Mexico, is also predicted to have eclipsed both Germany and the UK by 2050 even at market exchange rates terms. In per capita terms GDP, currently at $3,702 according , is thought likely to grow to $23,686 by 2050, the second lowest of all the countries measured, just above India, and some way behind China. Year on year GDP growth from 2005-2050 is given at 7.3% in US$ terms, 4.8% in rupiah terms, and 4.2% at per capita PPP terms. Whichever way it is measured these growth rates would see Indonesia just behind India, and just ahead of China, in ranking terms. The ranking of projected real growth in GDP and income per capita: 2005-50 (%pa) is predicted to be like this respectively : India, Indonesia, China, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Canada, Australia, US, Spain, UK, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, with Indonesia's income per capita will grow 4.2 p.a (India will be 4.3, and China 3.8). The summary of economic shift is predicted to be this way :
  • The Brazilian economy would be of similar size to that of Japan by 2050 at market exchange rates and slightly larger in PPP terms, but still only around 20-25% of the size of the US economy;
  • Indonesia and Mexico would also grow relatively rapidly, being larger than either Germany or the UK by 2050 (even at market exchange rates);
  • Russia would grow significantly more slowly due to its projected sharply declining working age population, but would still be of similar size to France by 2050 at either market exchange rates or PPPs; and
  • Turkey would grow more strongly due to its younger population, being of similar size to Italy by 2050 at both market exchange rates and in PPP terms.
Population China and Russia are expected to experience significant declines in their working age populations between 2005 and 2050, in contrast to relatively younger countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and Mexico, whose working age populations should on average show positive growth over this period, although they too will have begun to see the effects of aging by the middle of the century. So, if I still find a pessimistic Indonesian around, I'll punch him good. Read the report here : http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world2050emergingeconomies.pdf

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TENTANG AKHYARI HANANTO

I began my career in the banking industry in 1997, and stayed approx 6 years in it. This industry boost his knowledge about the economic condition in Indonesia, both macro and micro, and how to unders ... Lihat Profil Lengkap

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